Tuesday, September 10, 2013

SYRIA: DAVID KAY ASSESSMENT

Appearing tonight on CNN's Piers Morgan, then again on AC 360; former Iraq weapons inspector for the IAEA, David Kay, elevated the problem of the Russian proposal to a new level.

Certainly, Syria has now admitted to possession of large stockpiles of poison gas weapons and has tacitly agreed to signing on to the Chemical Weapons Convention.




Beyond the hassles expected in the UN Security Council over some resolution, Inspector Kay has brought into focus the actual mechanics of prolonged inspections of the Syrian stockpile.

#1.) The civil war in Syria will make the inspectors' job just short of impossible.
#2.) The only way in is through Beirut and the inspectors will have to bring all of their own gear, including communications.
#3.)The level of obstruction by the government would probably be high in order to prevent the inspectors from seeing something they are not supposed to see.
#4.) The number of inspector boots on the ground would be staggering, probably in the range of 1000 spread out over several years.
#5.) There hasn't even been any effort to determine who these inspectors are or where they would come from; Syria would not trust Western powers to do the job and some third party could not be considered a reliable liaison.
#6.) Even locating and doing an inventory would be beyond the scope of most qualified inspection organizations.


Off the table, David Kay had difficulty with his own superiors when his teams complained of Iraqi deception to prevent the inspectors from getting to the heart of the matter. Apparently, the IAEA bosses shined him on and considered it lack of experience in the field.

There are any number of variables yet to be addressed.

RUSSIAN ROULETTE WITH SYRIA